Nope, the US Government is not opening.

October 27th, 2025

by Nguyễn Đức Khánh An and Phạm Gia Phú

Lincoln memorial closed down during a government shutdown

1. What is a government shutdown?

A government shutdown occurs when a funding legislation required to finance the federal government is not enacted before the next fiscal year. As a result, the US Federal Government will stop funding non-essential government services and cut off wages for unimportant federal workers. [1]

National parks and capitol museums are closed, most government services continue to function despite the lack of funding through furloughing federal workers. Some departments execute mass layoffs. [2]

The government reopens when the congress finally decides on an appropriation bill. [3]

2. How did the shutdown start?

The 2025 United States federal government shutdown starts on October 1st, 2025 at 12.01 PM EDT and is ongoing today, being the second longest government shutdown.

The shutdown started as the US congress had not reached the 60/100 vote threshold to end debates and proceed voting on the bill. Upon October 23rd, 21 roll calls for both bills had been held yet never reached the threshold, with the majority of both parties voting to oppose each other. [4]

Democrats blocked Republicans’ appropriation bill (H.R. 5371) to demand more funding allocation on healthcare services rather than keeping the current spending plan as is until November 21st, 2025. Other motives for Democrats is to reverse all funding cuts to local public broadcasting and international aid. [5]

Republicans blocked Democrats’ appropriation bill (S. 2882) for wanting to reduce the budget deficit ever since the One Big Beautiful Bill established tax cuts on high income individuals and businesses, while also trying to fund more on lawmaker security. [6]

3. Effects on the US economy for each parties appropriation bill

Ever since the One Big Beautiful Bill allows tax cuts on high income individuals and businesses, it is projected that the US government will receive less tax revenue of $4.0 trillion, while economic growth increases by 0.5% to 1% in the long run. [7]

The budget deficit is projected to be an average 6.1% of real GDP in 10 years time, slightly double the last decade deficit percentage. [8]

Hence, Republicans are trying to cut funding on healthcare insurance, public broadcasting and foreign assistant programs to reduce the budget deficit. Democrats on the other hand are fighting to keep these funding for the people, especially low income families. Below is a chart comparing the economic effects* of each appropriation bill:

S. 2882 bill by DEMOCRATS [9]	H.R. 5371 bill by REPUBLICANS [10]
Extend the Enhanced Premium tax credit of the ACA. Allocate additional funding to healthcare services like Medicare. Pros:  Provide cheaper healthcare to lower income families. Raising quality of life that potentially boosts productivity and reduces cost-push inflation in the long run. Cons: Costly subsidies as 22.4 million US citizens are eligible for ePTC, with $98 billion spent last year. [11] Potentially increase the budget deficit due to high government spending.	Revert to the old Premium tax credit of the ACA. No additional funding for healthcare services. Pros: Reduce government spending on healthcare subsidies while still maintaining cheap healthcare to some low income families. [12] Potentially reduce demand-pull inflation in the short run. Cons: 22.4 million US citizens have their health insurance cost double. [13]. Quality of life is diminished, which can reduce productivity.
Funding Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Pros: Public broadcasts have financial relief. Provide information and entertainment for low income citizens. Correct misinformation and reduce information failure. Cons: Costly subsidies, funded $1.1 billion before the The Rescissions Act of 2025. [14]	Cuts funding from Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Pros: Reduce government spending on public broadcast. [15] Cons: Public broadcast continues to struggle under low profit (such as the case for CPB). [16] Low income citizens may not receive high quality information and entertainment. Misinformation and information failure prevails.
Funding International assistant program. Pros: International influence, US image of humanitarianism, fulfilling the responsibility as a major power in global politics. Aiding poverty relief and international development. Cons: Costly, funded $7.2 billion before the Rescissions Act of 2025. [17]	Cuts funding for the International assistant. Pros: Saving massively from international aid, reducing the fiscal deficit. [18] Consistent with the “America First” direction. Cons: Significantly reduces the international influence and standing of the United States, along with the respect of the international community to the United States in the goal of reducing worldwide poverty and providing global development.
Impact: increase budget deficit, raise inflation rate in the short run, positive externalities are kept, restore international influence. Spending remains the same as the previous fiscal year. Next year budget deficit might increase as tax revenue is reduced. Inflation rate is expected to rise as government spending increases. Low income families receive financial relief for healthcare and broadcast. Provide aid to other countries.	Impact: reduce budget deficit, keep inflation down in the short run, positive externalities are abandoned, international influence is weakened. Spending reduces by $106 billion compared to the previous fiscal year. Next year budget deficit might be reduced. Inflation rate is expected to hold as government spending decreases. Low income families receive double the cost for healthcare, while public broadcast may deteriorate. Less aid provision for other countries.

* Analyzed by Centeris Paribus, projection might be inaccurate and shall be used at a consideration.

4. Impact of the current government shutdown

Government shutdown is necessary to save government money. As well as to urge Congress to reach a resolution on the fiscal plan, making the chance of an economic meltdown small.

However, the longer the shutdown means more people - including federal workers and low income families - are financially affected, along with negative economic growth. Three government shutdowns in 2013, 2018 and 2019 wasted nearly $4 billion in taxpayer money. [19]

The 2025 United States federal government shutdown resulted in:

• An expected 900,000 federal workers are furloughed, 2,000,000 are working without pay. [20]

• Insurance market experienced inflation due to fear of discontinuing insurance subsidies. [21]

• The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), a federal service that provides food purchasing assistant for low- and no-income people, stopped their benefits in several states as the program’s funding is depleting. [22]

• Transport Security Administration stopped training and hiring people leading to flight delays due to staffing shortages. [23]

Reference:

[1], [2], [3]: Andrew Cohen (Sep 28, 2013). “The Odd Story of the Law That Dictates How Government Shutdowns Work”.

[4]: Congress.gov (as of Oct 27th). “All Actions: H.R.5371”. “All Actions: S.2882”.

[5], [6]: Sahil Kapur, Ryan Nobles, Brennan Leach and Frank Thorp V (Oct 24, 2025). “Senate rejects both parties' bills to avoid a shutdown, leaving next steps uncertain”. 

[7]: Andrew Lautz (Jul 23, 2025). “What Does the One Big Beautiful Bill Cost?“.

William McBride (Jun 26, 2025). “Will the Big Beautiful Bill Lead to an Economic Boom or Just Modestly Higher Growth?”.

[8]: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (Aug 20, 2025). “An August 2025 Budget Baseline”.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Oct 16, 2025). “Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product”.

[9], [10]: Congress.gov (as of Oct 27th). “H.R.5371 - Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2026”. “S.2882 - Continuing Appropriations and Extensions and Other Matters Act, 2026”.

[11], [12]: Congressional Budget Office (Apr 2018). “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028,” April 2018.

[13]: Justin Lo, Larry Levitt, Jared Ortaliza, and Cynthia Cox (Sep 30, 2025). “ACA Marketplace Premium Payments Would More than Double on Average Next Year if Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire”.

[14], [15], [16]: Liam Reilly and Brian Stelter (Aug 2, 2025). “Corporation for Public Broadcasting will shut down after Trump funding cuts”.

[17], [18]: Sahil Kapur, Frank Thorp V and Brennan Leach (Jul 17, 2025). “GOP-led Senate votes to cancel $9 billion in funding for foreign aid, NPR and PBS”.

[19]: Charles Steven Konigsberg (May 14, 2018). “Government Shutdowns Explained”.

[20]: Anvee Bhutani (Sept 29, 2025). “How a U.S. Government Shutdown Would Affect You”.

[21]: Joseph Choi (Oct 23, 2025). “ObamaCare price jump hits Idaho first as shutdown deal remains elusive”.

[22]: Leah Douglas (Oct 24, 2025). “US mayors urge USDA to fund November food benefits amid shutdown”.

[23]: Matt Lavietes and Corky Siemaszko (Oct 8, 2025). “Delays reported at airports for third day as government shutdown drags on”.